A New Government – Is it even possible? A Sarawak-Sabah Affair

After Pematang Pauh – Anwar has long been talking about September 16 and the formation of a new government by having at least 30 MPs to crossover from BN to PR.  Certainly, this is easier said than done and many people find it hard to believe if this can be pulled off.  However, you must certainly give Anwar the credit for his audacity to dare call for a change in Government.  Unlike Mahathir, Anwar has taken his first step into Parliament with a resounding victory last night at Pematang Pauh by-election.  Mahathir will remain commenting on the sideline outside of Umno.

What Does Anwar Need?

Now, for a more juicy view of things as Anwar is preparing for his swearing in as MP tomorrow, we shall take a look at the possibility of his September 16 vision taking place.  The following table can be obtained from The Star Online here.

F.T. Kuala Lumpur [ P ] 1 10
F.T. Labuan [ P ] 1
F.T. Putrajaya [ P ] 1
Johor [ P ] [ S ] 25 1 50 6
Kedah [ P ] [ S ] 4 11 14 21 1
Kelantan [ P ] [ S ] 2 12 6 39
Malacca [ P ] [ S ] 5 1 23 5
Negri Sembilan [ P ] [ S ] 5 3 21 15
Pahang [ P ] [ S ] 12 2 37 4 1
Penang [ P ] [ S ] 2 11 11 29
Perak [ P ] [ S ] 13 11 28 31
Perlis [ P ] [ S ] 3 14 1
Sabah [ P ] [ S ] 24 1 59 1
Sarawak [ P ] 30 1
Selangor [ P ] [ S ] 5 17 20 36
Terengganu [ P ] [ S ] 7 1 24 8
Total 140 82 0 307 196 2

The first thing for BN to do is to consolidate the power position within the current Government.  Pak Lah should be calling on his East Malaysian support as looking at the GE12 results, they are the ones who contribute 54 of the entire 140 total for the BN to form the Government.  Apart from the Johor (25) stronghold, Sarawak (30) and Sabah (24) constitutes BN’s largest support in Parliament.

Pak Lah busy with Sarawak?

So, it would not be surprising to find Pak Lah now busy not with the country’s economy but with the confidence building of the relationship with Sarawak and Sabah MPs.  The survival of BN as a Government stands on his success in convincing all the East Malaysian MPs about the future with BN and not with Anwar’s PR.  Given the proactive approach of Anwar with Sabah MPs, it will not be surprising that they are prepared to consider very strongly the combination with him.  In fact, the two biggest bane being issues concerning illegal immigrants and oil royalty are both top of the agenda with Anwar.  Yong has stated that BN has up till August to settle the Sabah issues (read here).

What about Anwar and Sarawak

However, Anwar has yet to be seen to establish any of such understanding with Sarawak.  Abdul Taib Mahmud has stayed away from being seen to have any association with Anwar even until now.  That has given Pak Lah and the BN Government a sense of confidence in his loyalty towards the present relationship.  But anything can happen in politics.  What is happening away from public scrutiny will be the thing that will make or break that relationship.  Anwar has also extended the same position to Sarawak on the oil royalty issue as with Sabah.  What will be Abdul Taib Mahmud’s position will be very interesting now.  He can become the king maker.

Watch Sarawak closely as Pak Lah and Anwar will simultaneously pursue the support of that state’s MPs to either form the new Government or prevent its formation.

Definitely Interesting – It’s Shaping The Country

We are living in very interesting times.  Apart from the high inflation and the high petrol prices, the March General Election 2008 results together with yesterday’s Pematang Pauh by-election have together shown a new political environment in the electorate of mature Malaysians.  They are now more aware of issues and have shown their disdain on economic issues at the polling stations.

So what is next?  The shaping of PR’s support by East Malaysian MPs and how they will align with Anwar in the coming weeks.  Both Anwar and Pak Lah will be very busy with Abdul Taib Mahmud but such activities will be away from our prying eyes until the time comes.

September 16 is smack in the Parliament recess during the Ramadhan month.  What can happen then?  The jostling of East Malaysian support by Anwar and Pak Lah as well as not forgetting the West Malaysian MPs from Gerakan, MCA and MIC.  Will they consider abandoning ship?  Who knows when the time comes, anything can happen.

The key for Anwar is East Malaysia and the key of East Malaysia is Sarawak.

Stay tuned for more interesting developments already underway.  September 16 or whatever other date is dependent on them.  The king maker will have to make a call soon.

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