What ifs in October


What if this happens or that happens?  There are a myriad of speculations in the month of hot October.  So let’s do some What-if analysis on possibilities, albeit hypothetical.  Beats reading the newspapers.

What if Badawi goes for the Umno Presidential election?

This will be one of his greatest surprise to the Umno Supreme  Council and to Najib for that matter.  Even Mahathir now thinks so.  Till now, Badawi has never said he was stepping down next March.  His official statement was that the postponement of the Umno election to next March was to facilitate the transition.  It’s probably a compromise of sorts between Badawi and the Supreme Council members to buy some time to have a peaceful Hari Raya and to decide on the next steps now that it is clear who is for him and who is against him.

Badawi may also want to go for the election so that he can retire on his own terms.  If he is re-elected, he can choose a date to retire and make the transition by 2010.  If he loses in the election, he can call it a day because the members have spoken.  Either way, he will have clarity in his future then.

Now if Badawi goes for election, what will Najib do?  Will he challenge Badawi and risk a split in Umno or will he stand as Deputy President along with the myriads of others who will go for that same position?  If Najib goes for the Deputy President position hoping to win it hands down, he may be in for a bigger surprise.  In the event the entire clan vies for that position, it may be anybody’s guess then.

What if Najib is not the chosen one?

Now this will surely run a chill up your spine.  How can this even be?  Obviously, in politics, anything can happen.  So if Najib is not the chosen one, he will not win the Deputy President position even if he runs for it and Badawi will pass his mantle to the next guy.

If Najib is not the chosen one, then who is?  Chances are that the pool of candidates in the Deputy President nominations will contain that name but the name is not yet revealed.  Badawi will not have to pass anything to Najib because the members would have spoken at the elections.

Up till before the earlier Supreme Council meeting, Badawi has stated that he will handover to Najib by 2010 but since those last two frank and honest Supreme Council meetings, Badawi has not said a word if he will actually hand anything over to Najib and by when.  All we know is the postponement of the elections to facilitate the transition, whatever that may mean.  And Badawi wants everybody to keep guessing.  He has not come clean and clear on anything after the last Supreme Council meeting.

Is there a chance Najib is not the man?  Yes.  We’ll just leave it at that for now.  After all, we’re only drooling over hypothetical what-ifs.  And if this be the case, there’s a Najib #2 in the woodwork somewhere.

What if Upko and Gerakan leave BN?

At this present moment, all indications point to the stark possibility of these two parties making such a move.  They have come out to talk about it by their top leaders.  They are watching the signs and feedbacks along the way.  Their individual party challenges cannot be simply swept aside by Umno and brushed away as administrative oversight or let’s discuss further.  It has come to such a head that their leaders openly talk about the possibility of leaving BN is no passing remark.

If these two parties leave BN, they will start a momentum that Umno can’t stop.  With SAPP, it’s a small tremor.  With Upko, another Sabah party, it will be 6 on the richter scale.  Throw in Gerakan, it will be 7.

What if MCA leaves BN?

This may have little possibility right now.  Certainly, it was claimed that MCA grassroots want a distinct move to stand up to Umno as an equal partner or even leave the BN.  Who’s to say this is what the grassroots want.  At this time, conflicting news regarding grassroot support for Badawi have appeared.  So why not for MCA?  Who’s doing the listening and who’s interpreting the grassroots signals?

If MCA leaves BN, it will be a severe blow to Umno.  BN will become Umno from that point.  Notwithstanding the insignificance of MIC presently.  The leaders of Umno must pull all stops to prevent this from happening.

What if Zaid Ibrahim leaves Umno?

This looks all the more possible with each interview Zaid makes.  He is said to be unhappy with Umno and joining PKR is not an impossibility now.  If this happens, it will be a major coup for Anwar’s PKR and a jewel in their crown.  At this time, Umno will not bother about Zaid.  He is but one individual.

What if Razaleigh a.k.a. Ku Li leaves Umno again?

This has happened once in the late 80s after he lost marginally to Mahathir in that Umno presidential election.  Will it happen again?  Razaleigh has been reported to have met with Anwar and Pakatan Rakyat leaders over the Hari Raya.  What can be cooking there?

If Razaleigh leaves Umno, he can bring a sizeable group of Umno members along with him.  Razaleigh has already fired his first salvos against Badawi and Najib saying what the two top leaders were doing in making private arrangements of transition is a mockery for the country and that nobody is putting country above self.  Is this enough to cause Razaleigh to leave Umno?

Razaleigh can run for the Umno election if he gains at least 58 nominations for the President post but chances of that may be slim.  Otherwise, he has that option to lead an exodus to PKR and join Anwar.  Now if this happens, Razaleigh will cause the major of earthquakes at 8 on the richter scale.  And it can break Umno bad, worse than if Najib challenges Badawi for the President post.

What if Badawi makes the transition to Anwar?

Now that is so far fetched that it makes this posting a fairy tale.  Even if Badawi agrees, Umno as a whole will never.  And a joint government with Pakatan Rakyat will make that thought a tall tale.  Since we are on what-ifs, well there we explore all of them, however remote they may be.

What if Anwar files for a vote of no confidence in Parliament?

This is also highly improbable given that the Speaker has denied it twice saying that it is important but not urgent.  Chances are the application for the vote of no confidence will not get the approval.  This can become a moot point eventually but is quite definitely that Anwar will go for it regardless.  It will provide some interesting stories from Parliament in October.  What this means is that Anwar will not have a chance to show his hand and all MPs supporting him are safe!

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2 Responses to “What ifs in October”

  1. My intuition is that Zaid and Ku Li will join PKR soon. A few other BN component parties would do the same. With Zaid and Ku Li there will be an exodus of UMNO members into PKR. To PKR or PR, these two figures are a big asset. Ku Li has no more future in UMNO. After leaving UMNO once and returning to UMNO later, he was not given any ministerial post. He is totally kept aside by other ambitious politicians in UMNO. In fact, he is forgotten in UMNO. His future now lies with PR, as he said he is sincere in bringing back the country into its economic glory. He is a sincere politician and he is a capable finance minister. Zaid too has no future in UMNO. Zaid is a smart man. Joining PR will can make him a capable minister – a minister who will bring about reforms to the judiciary. PR is sincere and seriously looking for reforms. Hopefully, more capable politicians join PR. We need a two-party system badly. October will see some drastic changes to the local political scenario. If Pak Lah decides to leave early, Ku Li will be at a disadvantage in UMNO. Be it as it may, we want Ku Li and Zaid to quickly join PKR and bring about to a quick change to the political scenario in the country.

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