Sarawak: Win-Win is Possible


Sarawakians will decide on April 16. This election appears to be heading towards a landmark in not only state history but a national history.

1. Taib will win but lose enough to have a strong opposition

Although there are serious rumblings and disenchantments across many constituencies, it is unlikely that Taib can be defeated at all. The culture of state dependence is just too strong. The government machinery with Najib in the picture will dampen the opposition’s momentum for sure.

However, it is also accepted that BN will lose substantial number of seats, between 20 to 25 seats in all probability to deny BN 2/3 majority (24 seats needed). Between PBB and SUPP, they can easily lose 20 over seats with SUPP losing the most.

[On a side note, it is highly improbable that the opposition will take over from BN. As such, it will remain an impossible dream for them but the results may just be enough to lead a federal electoral change. Baru Bian will not be the next CM but possibly the Opposition Leader at the State Assembly.]

This will definitely serve a loud wake up call without Taib losing out and delivers on his promise to win Sarawak for Najib. A major reshuffle of leaders and strategies will take place and Sarawakians will win ultimately.

In this state of power shift, Taib wins, opposition wins and the people wins.

2. Najib’s worst fears begins

Sarawak will NOT fall to the opposition. It cannot, not at this time, if ever. Taib will continue to rule but most definitely not for very long though.

Enough seats will go to the opposition to legitimize the growing disenchanted voices of Sarawakians and to keep the ruling government on their toes.

This will mirror the federal parliament where the opposition denied the BN their historical 2/3 majority.

However, this time around, Najib will really be having a nightmare to call for GE13 soon.

Najib has already broken history by calling off this Wednesday Cabinet meeting and have flown to Sarawak with his Ministers to campaign for BN. This signifies a desperate Najib not confident that Taib can sweep the seats again although Taib can win it for BN.

However, Sarawakians are smart people and proud of their statehood. They don’t like to be walked all over and told what to do. Taib and team are certainly not going to appreciate this intrusion by Najib. It will most likely fuel some level of retaliation at the votes swing from BN to the opposition instead of helping. This lesson was not learnt in the Sibu by-election at all.

In yesterday’s news, Najib had lost out to the opposition support at the ceramahs held in Kuching. Najib’s 1,000 vs Anwar’s 8,000. The Peninsula’s campaign style has taken hold in Sarawak for sure. However, this is no indication of the voting pattern at all. An emotional victory for the time being for the opposition and red faces for BN.

Najib will sweat if Sarawak loses its 2/3 majority and his worst nightmare will begin about his decision on GE13.

3. Time will tell – April 16

Will there be a Sarawak BN revolt on Najib’s usurping Taib’s leadership in the campaign? Will Taib let this go without a whimper and swallow this intrusion and eat humble pie?

If Taib is the fearless leader that he is and all the powers that be supporting him, there will be evidently clear signals at what can be called a “controlled loss”. Sarawak BN will win the state and lose 2/3 majority. Taib will deliver on his promise and also signal to Najib that he is not welcomed in Sarawak by losing enough seats in retaliation.

Bouyed by an opposition gaining momentum, this can be easily achieved by Taib. A loss that is yet considered a win for Taib and Sarawak and giving room to the opposition.

4. Sarawak has a National impact

Do not for a minute think this is merely a state election. By Najib making his historic entrance intruding into Sarawak elections will tell you that this has a serious national impact.

Never in the history of Sarawak election have we seen the PM taking over the campaign trails. Najib is the first and probably not the last Peninsula leader to do so into the future. He has set the precedence.

From the Sibu “You give me, I give you” “buy election” to this very major state elections, Najib is not letting any results to chance if he can help it.

Time will tell and soon it will be. Come Saturday, history will be made. Sarawak will write national history as they cast their votes.

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