GE13 date in November 2013 – 24th/25th?

With the recent rush of the Budget 2013 and visits to Sabah and Sarawak, coupled with witnessing the peace accord in Southern Philippines, PM Najib may be feeling rather upbeat and confident to call for GE13. The Auditor General Report 2011 was finally released with the AG himself saying some nice things about the Government agencies and less stellar words of praises to the Pakatan states. Not that these states did not perform well. On the contrary, Penang and Selangor remains at the top of financial management standing. But perhaps there are less earth shattering things for the Opposition to harp on gives Najib a really good feel.

Now, Najib has hinted way too many times of failed GE dates and public speculation is all but nonsense given that Najib himself is not ready to do so. Najib needs to win spectacularly and win back what Badawi lost in 2008 – the 2/3 majority. If not, he may be in dire straits not because of the public but because of Umno. Look at what happened to Badawi when he lost the 2/3 majority as well as 4 other states (3 after Perak was “taken” back by BN).

Word has it that November may still be a real date, particularly towards end of November during the school holidays. Perhaps the week around the weekend of 24th or 25th November may seem very plausible this time.

Why? Because:

a) Najib feels good after his trip to Sabah and that it remains a “fixed deposit” state.

b) Confidence that CM Taib will retain Sarawak. Najib has more to worry about himself than worry about retiring Taib.

c) No major surprises and impact with the AG Report 2011. So far, so good, and Najib hopes this will continue with no earth shattering counter attacks by the Opposition. Anyway, Najib and team had the report for a long time now to prepare themselves.

d) His Budget 2013 remains upbeat with the Opposition making just little dents against it. Again, nothing seriously bad affecting Najib from this Budget. He was more professional.

e) Maybe he has found a truce with Muhyiddin/Mahathir if he calls the GE13 in November. Maybe Muhkriz has found a suitable slot in Kedah. Maybe Khairy has been checked adequately. Badawi will withdraw from standing in Kepala Batas and leaves another safe seat for Khairy by proxy? Who knows? Mere speculations around the teh tarik stalls fuels the rumors.

f) Razaleigh is no longer a threat to Najib. In fact, Najib may not have to be concerned about Razaleigh anymore is good news. He just have to leave Gua Musang to Razaleigh and leave it at that.

g) On-ground preparation for a GE needs time and end-November seems to be the best time this time round.

h) It will be soon after Deepavali and Awal Muharram, two major public holidays in November. It has to be after and not before.

i) There must be enough cash reserves now ready from whichever means available to finance this major “war” of a General Election.

j) All the downside issues are now isolated from BN or minimized on its impact against BN. Shahrizat is on her own in the NFC scandal, Utusan is paying for all the losses of lawsuits filed against it, Bersih has quietened down with the EC appearing to have done their part on the PAC recommendations and the Sabah Umno and BN leaders leaving to form their independent groups seem not to have dented Sabah Umno much.

If nothing major occurs during this time, we shall see the dissolution of Parliament really soon, maybe as soon as after Hari Raya Haji by the end of this month.

We shall soon see, won’t we? After all, this will be the mother of all GEs and is unpredictable.

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