It will be “impossible” for the BN to get a two-thirds parliamentary majority in the next general election – and this could lead to BN head and prime minister Najib Abdul Razak’s resignation, to a study says. (read here and here)
There is only a logical reasoning to come to such a conclusion.
The conclusion is one that has to do with the position of PM Najib to remain as Prime Minister of Malaysia. Will he be able to stay or will he be forced to step down?
Here is the simple analysis.
BN doesn’t win 2/3 seats in Parliament in GE13
According to Malaysia Kini, a report indicates that BN will not win the 2/3 majority that ex-PM Abdullah Badawi lost in the GE12. Indications elsewhere shows that it may even be a slimmer majority than the one that Badawi won in March 2008.
If this be the case, the inevitable will be that the higher hands in Umno will seek the “retirement” of Najib shortly after the polls. This will be similar to what Najib did to Badawi in 2009 to “force” him to step down.
Perhaps, this scenario has caused Najib to delay GE13 for such a long time as his own reports may have shown this possibility being very high.
Nevertheless, Najib has launched his election campaign last year and just raised it a notch higher with promises to develop Kelantan with 7 key projects if BN wins.
He must pull off all stops to ensure that his poll results will be much better than Badawi and many predict that if 2/3 is not achieved, Najib will not be able to rule in peace and his “retirement” being made more imminent.
BN loses GE13
This is also a very possible scenario indeed. Not that BN and Umno welcomes but being shrewd politicians having ruled for over 54 years, they will know how to read the writing on the wall.
Popular polls of BN has dropped significantly while Najib’s popularity is still holding up somewhat. In Malaysia, the popularity of a single individual is not enough to shore up a win for the entire party because the votes goes to candidates of every constituency and not to a single popular leader.
Perhaps this next GE13 seems to be the best shot that the Opposition has at taking over Putrajaya. And if this is true, then Najib will be the Opposition Leader instead. Even then, Umno will see to him being replaced very soon if this be the case.
Head or Tail, Najib loses
As we can see, if BN wins but less than 2/3 majority, Najib will eventually face his demise by his own party.
If BN loses, Najib will no longer be PM and eventually face the same demise by his own party.
The only way for Najib to survive is to win by 2/3 majority to satisfy the powers that rule Umno behind the scenes. Else Muhyiddin and others are preparing to step in to replace Najib sooner or later.
Najib faces so many challenges internally that makes fighting the Pakatan Rakyat Opposition Front a distraction. If he does not survive internally, he will not survive at all. Winning the polls may be a foregone conclusion to Najib but winning the 2/3 is not.
Strong Rumors Surround Najib
There are so many allegations and rumors swimming in blogs around the Internet space pointing to the imminent demise of Najib’s career.
Perhaps, the strongest rumor is the plot by Tun M to replace Najib with Muhyiddin. And in turn that Najib is turning up his counter-strategy to dissolve Parliament very soon after Chinese New Year to prevent any preemptive move by Tun M and leave the rest to the people at the ballot box.
The GE13 results will determine the next moves within Umno on the future of Najib and Muhyiddin and even Tengku Razaleigh as well as Mukhriz and Khairy.
For now, it is clear that Najib is under siege within his own party and he must move swiftly and decisively if he is to remain in power. His call of the candidate list may be his last chance to ensure his own people gets nominated to be candidates to maintain the balance of power within Umno and BN.
And this is the most tricky piece of work because you can’t please everybody and will cause massive disruption of on-the-ground support if not handled well.
We shall watch Najib’s masterstroke in this matter very soon.