As much as questions fielded to Pakatan Rakyat as to who will be their choice for the PM position in the event they win the GE13, the same question should also be asked of Barisan Nasional as if current PM Najib will continue to be one if they win with a lesser majority than during ex-PM Abdullah Badawi in 2008.
Tun M has voiced out his opinion that Najib is weak and if a lesser majority is obtained by him, Tun M believes Najib should be replaced. Of course, he gave a caveat that it was to be the decision the of Umno Supreme Council. The observation of most political analysts actually concurs with Tun M and if Badawi had to go for historical poorest performance, so should Najib in following the precedent. Read here for an analysis that BN will not get a 2/3 majority in the GE13.
BN has been trying to shake the PR tree playing up a strawman that Anwar may not be the PR choice for PM because of objections from PAS. At the same time, BN is playing ignoramus regarding Najib’s position as PM and Najib knows it all too well.
That is why the GE13 will now be held at the very last possible moment that Najib can call. It is very clear by now he has missed all the best timing over the past 3 years and has placed Malaysia in a state of flux guessing the GE13. The expected date will now be mid-April for dissolving Parliament and EC shall call for the GE in mid-May with a possible 10 days of campaigning. Otherwise, Najib’s term automatically expires on 30th April and the constitution will take over from there onwards.
What is clear will be as follows:
1. If BN wins by less than 2/3 majority, Najib will be PM until replaced as Umno President by possibly Muhyiddin. Then Muhyiddin will be the next PM.
2. If BN loses, then it will be PR who decides who will be PM.
3. If PR wins, it is generally assumed that PKR and DAP will support Anwar as the PM. PAS support is probably conditional on PKR winning more seats than PAS. Otherwise, PAS will nominate Hadi Awang and subject to acceptance by DAP which is highly unlikely that they will accept. DAP has already come out to support Anwar publicly for the PM position.
4. There was a rumor that in the event of a stalemate that PKR wins less seats than PAS that neither Anwar nor Hadi will be PM. PR may invite Tengku Razaleigh to stand as PM. Still a rumor and a far fetched one too. Don’t hold your breathe on this one.
5. DAP will not nominate anyone to be PM from their party. At the most, the DPM position will be coveted by DAP and it is likely that DAP will perform even better in the coming GE13, especially in Sabah and Sarawak. So, DPM is for DAP and there will probably be more than 1 DPM position if PR wins. The other is for PAS if PKR takes the PM position. Yet another exception to be set by PR.
6. Anwar has publicly stated that it is not important if he is PM or not to calm down the storm in a teacup. The general public feels that he has the best credentials of experience and also international relations to be PM than any other candidates but any speculation will be moot at this time. PR must win first.
Actually, who will be the next PM is not any Malaysian’s call, sadly. It will be the winning parties’ call. The leadership of BN or PR will decide. Let’s cross this GE13 hurdle first and hope for a PM direct election by Malaysians another day just like the US voting the President. Our Westminster system still accords the decision to the winning parties.
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