Posts tagged ‘elections’

April 16, 2011

Sarawak Election – The Last Hours


There are only hours till polling. It is Friday night right before the Sarawak Election Day – 16 April.

Expect all punches pulled. The federal government came to campaign. So did Tun M today. The Sarawak polls has turned into a federal matter.

Predictions from all over but which ones are accurate. Time will tell.

Some say the shocking outcome tomorrow may see SUPP mauled and go the way of Gerakan. SNAP will win nothing. Masing and even Abang Johari and George Chan may lose and the fight will be immense. On the ground sentiments may indicate a loss already.

Another assessment puts even Taib losing. Unbelievable. As an old hand in such elections, it is quite impossible to “lose” the seat at all. Taib knows exactly what to do to save his seat for sure. As for the rest, that may not be quite the same and will depend on how much vote swing they can fight but beyond which is game over.

Both BN and Pakatan are putting their best foot forward and BN will do their utmost to fend off the unexpected most formidable challenge by the entire opposition front.

What is clear is that the tide has turned in many areas towards the opposition. Some say at least 19 seats but another 20+ is too close to call. The opposition has managed to mount their campaign that touched many Sarawakians and changed at least the ceramah culture by turning out by tens of thousands in some reports.

Certainly, BN has been bedazzled by the opposition led by Anwar. All the attempts to smear him have not stopped his popularity but have given him more public support. The way the opposition handled the many sensitive issues made them looked personable. BN didn’t come across as understanding the ordinary Sarawakian and the opposition wins hands down.

Crowds don’t necessarily correlate with votes but is definitely encouraging. BN’s crowds came for the food and goodies and then leave for the opposition ceramahs. That certainly must be disappointing but yet doesn’t mean a loss of votes.

This time round, Sarawakians are treated with the election campaigns of their lives. The Christian community which makes up almost half the voters were not spared when Najib and Pakatan both tried to reach out to them. Net result, BN made no headway.

Tomorrow morning will herald a new dawn for Sarawak regardless how the results turn out. It’s already a historic campaign.

And then to see how much of all predictions will match the voters final collective decisions.

Sarawak! The stage is yours! Vote wisely your constitutional right and your loudest voice yet! The rest of Malaysia and the world are watching you.

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April 11, 2011

Sarawak: Win-Win is Possible


Sarawakians will decide on April 16. This election appears to be heading towards a landmark in not only state history but a national history.

1. Taib will win but lose enough to have a strong opposition

Although there are serious rumblings and disenchantments across many constituencies, it is unlikely that Taib can be defeated at all. The culture of state dependence is just too strong. The government machinery with Najib in the picture will dampen the opposition’s momentum for sure.

However, it is also accepted that BN will lose substantial number of seats, between 20 to 25 seats in all probability to deny BN 2/3 majority (24 seats needed). Between PBB and SUPP, they can easily lose 20 over seats with SUPP losing the most.

[On a side note, it is highly improbable that the opposition will take over from BN. As such, it will remain an impossible dream for them but the results may just be enough to lead a federal electoral change. Baru Bian will not be the next CM but possibly the Opposition Leader at the State Assembly.]

This will definitely serve a loud wake up call without Taib losing out and delivers on his promise to win Sarawak for Najib. A major reshuffle of leaders and strategies will take place and Sarawakians will win ultimately.

In this state of power shift, Taib wins, opposition wins and the people wins.

2. Najib’s worst fears begins

Sarawak will NOT fall to the opposition. It cannot, not at this time, if ever. Taib will continue to rule but most definitely not for very long though.

Enough seats will go to the opposition to legitimize the growing disenchanted voices of Sarawakians and to keep the ruling government on their toes.

This will mirror the federal parliament where the opposition denied the BN their historical 2/3 majority.

However, this time around, Najib will really be having a nightmare to call for GE13 soon.

Najib has already broken history by calling off this Wednesday Cabinet meeting and have flown to Sarawak with his Ministers to campaign for BN. This signifies a desperate Najib not confident that Taib can sweep the seats again although Taib can win it for BN.

However, Sarawakians are smart people and proud of their statehood. They don’t like to be walked all over and told what to do. Taib and team are certainly not going to appreciate this intrusion by Najib. It will most likely fuel some level of retaliation at the votes swing from BN to the opposition instead of helping. This lesson was not learnt in the Sibu by-election at all.

In yesterday’s news, Najib had lost out to the opposition support at the ceramahs held in Kuching. Najib’s 1,000 vs Anwar’s 8,000. The Peninsula’s campaign style has taken hold in Sarawak for sure. However, this is no indication of the voting pattern at all. An emotional victory for the time being for the opposition and red faces for BN.

Najib will sweat if Sarawak loses its 2/3 majority and his worst nightmare will begin about his decision on GE13.

3. Time will tell – April 16

Will there be a Sarawak BN revolt on Najib’s usurping Taib’s leadership in the campaign? Will Taib let this go without a whimper and swallow this intrusion and eat humble pie?

If Taib is the fearless leader that he is and all the powers that be supporting him, there will be evidently clear signals at what can be called a “controlled loss”. Sarawak BN will win the state and lose 2/3 majority. Taib will deliver on his promise and also signal to Najib that he is not welcomed in Sarawak by losing enough seats in retaliation.

Bouyed by an opposition gaining momentum, this can be easily achieved by Taib. A loss that is yet considered a win for Taib and Sarawak and giving room to the opposition.

4. Sarawak has a National impact

Do not for a minute think this is merely a state election. By Najib making his historic entrance intruding into Sarawak elections will tell you that this has a serious national impact.

Never in the history of Sarawak election have we seen the PM taking over the campaign trails. Najib is the first and probably not the last Peninsula leader to do so into the future. He has set the precedence.

From the Sibu “You give me, I give you” “buy election” to this very major state elections, Najib is not letting any results to chance if he can help it.

Time will tell and soon it will be. Come Saturday, history will be made. Sarawak will write national history as they cast their votes.

September 23, 2008

PM Surprise Move, Now over to Najib and Anwar


It appears that Pak Lah will defend his presidency this December.  Judging from today’s MalaysianInsider report here, Pak Lah seems to have risen above the detractors in the Umno Supreme Council meeting last week.  Instead of caving in to Muhyiddin, Rafidah, Hishamuddin and Apdal Shafiee who were reportedly going for the jugular pressing for Pak Lah to handover to Najib, Pak Lah took a deep breath and shocked them by doing just the opposite.

Will Najib want to go against his boss?  Will his backers push for the prize now?  Does Najib want to defy Pak Lah?  Pak Lah today knows who is for him and who is against him.

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August 27, 2008

A New Government – Is it even possible? A Sarawak-Sabah Affair


After Pematang Pauh – Anwar has long been talking about September 16 and the formation of a new government by having at least 30 MPs to crossover from BN to PR.  Certainly, this is easier said than done and many people find it hard to believe if this can be pulled off.  However, you must certainly give Anwar the credit for his audacity to dare call for a change in Government.  Unlike Mahathir, Anwar has taken his first step into Parliament with a resounding victory last night at Pematang Pauh by-election.  Mahathir will remain commenting on the sideline outside of Umno.

What Does Anwar Need?

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August 27, 2008

Final Words on Pematang Pauh


Results At A Glance

PKR – 31,195 (Anwar)  30,348 (Wan Azizah)

BN – 15,524 (Arif Shah)  16,950 (Pirdaus)

Majority – 15,671 (Anwar)  13,398 (Wan Azizah)

* The GE12 results for Pematang Pauh can be found here at the SPR official website.

Now that the dust is settling, Anwar will be sworn in as MP of Pematang Pauh tomorrow (Thursday) as reported by Bernama (read here).  Looks like there’s nothing to stop this from happening and he will be voted as the Opposition Leader as well.  Looks like it’s all set for the next phase of Anwar’s plan.

In a nutshell, the Pematang Pauh by-election results is a repeat of the March GE12 results where the voters are voicing out yet again the frustrations against the BN government.  The slight decrease in BN votes may not be significant but the majority reflects a clear voice of dissatisfaction by the voters.

It also shows that no amount of mud slinging, character assassination, intimidation, silly promises and what nots can stir the voters.  The results remain the same.  It is NOT all about Anwar, it’s also about BN’s inability to make life better for the people and govern the country.

For now, Malaysians will have a good Merdeka Day!

Next: A New Government – Is It Even Possible? A Sarawak-Sabah Affair

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August 27, 2008

After Pematang Pauh, what next?


Now that it is official that Anwar has won yesterday’s mother of all by-elections, what is next?

Parliament awaits him next obviously.  But this is but the beginning of a long road for Anwar.  Nevertheless, it is happening and the reverberations are felt across Malaysia.  Many Malaysians consider this first step the start to a new Malaysia.  But is it?  Will it happen?  What is going to stop it?  Where is Malaysia going next?

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August 27, 2008

Pematang Pauh Watershed Analysis


Pematang Pauh – The dirtiest and most hard fought by-election or any election for that matter is over.  BN threw everything they had at Anwar.  Of course, these are considered allegations by BN as they have categorically denied setting up Saiful for Anwar’s fall, the police report, the swearing as well as the continuous showing of the Saiful swearing during BN’s campaign although they had felt that it wasn’t in their best interest to capitalize on it.  Somehow, the entire BN bandwagon jumped on the Saiful swearing and allowed Anwar to beat Arif Shah by 2,273 more votes than Wan Azizah did in March 2008.

So why did BN lose?

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