Sarawak Election – Who Really Won and Lost?

The Sarawak Election is over and the people has spoken. They brought BN and Taib back to power.

Obviously, BN won with 55 seats but lost 8% of the popular votes at 55.24% (unofficially).

Taib, PBB

Then it is also obvious that Taib won and he was promptly sworn in as the CM. He was slated to win anyways because PBB won all 35 seats, one short of a simple majority. Taib is not CM for 30 years by fluke. He also won his right to dictate to BM and specifically Umno of his power endorsed and over Najib’s intrusion during the end of the campaign.

There was never a moment that Taib would have lost except for wild speculations and Najib’s paranoia for not understanding Sarawak. Najib’s advisors should all be sacked for underestimating the old fox and usurping his power but Taib won hands down.

DAP

It is a resounding acceptance by the Sarawakians, not just the Chinese but Dayak and Iban communities that came thronging in support and gave it overwhelmingly. Winning 12 out of 15 seats contested is excellent and PKR, PAS, SUPP, and SNAP must learn from DAP and PBB.

Go for what you seriously can win. Not for wishful thinking like SNAP and PKR. Even PAS knew they didn’t stand a chance but going for 5 seats shows they were testing the water still. But PKR going for 49 seats and ended up losing 46 (regardless of reasons which might be true). PKR had no clue going into the Sarawak Election and the results showed.

DAP was preparing for close to a year. PKR was still bickering over seats with SNAP. And there’s nothing more needed to be said about SNAP now with such dismal results losing all 26 seats contested, including the one they won in 2006.

Najib

Although Najib and the rest of the Ministers would like to claim glory for the BN win, it will be too short sighted for them not to realize that their contribution almost helped the opposition win. The Taib factor was the platform for the opposition but was also the reason BN still won in all the heartlands of rural Sarawak. Taib knows best. That’s why he’s been CM for so long and with this results, no one can deny Taib, not even Najib.

But Najib did win for trying hard. And he did so at his own peril of upsetting Taib. Now, Najib will try to force Taib to step down and Taib’s message will be bugger off!

PKR

Not enough can be said but they don’t seem to learn. No proper preparation ahead of time, going into battle without strategy but piggyback on DAP. Going for way too many seats without having the right resources.

They underestimated the logistics and terrain of the constituencies they contested. There was no cohesive ground strategy except to push with ceramahs. Rural folks in the heartland needs handouts, not words, as they are already in hardship. Not able to communicate to them how PKR can change that if they voted PKR has been the biggest challenge.

PBB is there for way longer and knows the culture and terrain very well. What made PKR think by popping in during election that the people’s minds can be swayed? As we can now see, PBB won all their seats.

PKR’s Azmin Ali doesn’t know a thing about running campaigns and if he does, it didn’t show. DAP’s Tony Pua although new had all the experiences he can drawn on and the urban/rural landscape is more familiar after being there for decades. So PKR can’t expect the same results as DAP.

Last remark about PKR. They were hoping that the GE12 sentiments against the establishment was present and hoped that the people will vote just anyone as long as it’s not related to Taib. They were so wrong. Poor reading of Taib’s mega influence just like Najib. Seems that West Malaysians don’t have much of a clue on how Sarawak works and thinks.

SUPP

George Chan lost. SUPP won a mere 6 seats. George is expected to step down soon and let the next set of leaders decide the fate of the party, unlike Gerakan and MCA who has been giving SUPP advice publicly that sounded more like flatulence instead.

SUPP knows best. George must be really tired fighting the election of his life that was nothing like what SUPP had faced before. DAP literally overwhelmed with personable messages rather than generic rhetorics.

Sarawakians

The people will win but if any community of people is sidelined or victimised, there will surely be a retaliation in the GE13 when that happens.

The results is the people’s choice. They are still Sarawakians even if they didn’t vote BN. What should be alarming is that almost half the voters supported the opposition.

So to win them back is to do more to show BN can seriously “transform” into what they personally feel is improvement before the supportive 50% start casting the votes the other way.

One thing for sure. The popular votes show more accurately the sentiments of the people and not the seats as they don’t represent the 1 person 1 vote construction.

The people has spoken. Take heed. This is possibly the last chance for BN to buck up before it’s too late.

BN wins Sarawak but loses more seats to DAP, PKR

Taib delivers Sarawak yet again.

As the results are still coming in, the official announcement by EC was just made that BN has won by a simple majority. Indications are getting clearer that BN may just also get their 2/3 majority but just barely.

It is expected that DAP will win at least 12 seats with PKR between 8 to 12 seats. There is only 1 Independent winner.

What is clear is that SNAP and PAS did not win a single seat. Did SNAP help BN win by splitting the non-BN votes? We’ll know when the detailed results come in.

The biggest loser is SUPP where George Chan and many of his team lost to DAP.

What will this mean to BN, Taib and Najib?

This result is a wake up call to the BN to put things right and restore the confidence of the people. Fixing all the public grouses as well as reorganizing the BN parties, particularly SUPP, will be crucial.

Taib wins by not doing much and this will probably tells a story to Najib not to jump the gun in Sarawak. No matter how the opposition gains traction, it still can’t get that far. Sarawak is different from Peninsular. Although the Peninsular styles have certainly made an impact, the culture is still different from the Peninsula’s practice. The Najib intrusion was not appreciated and was a kneejerk reaction, a sense of desperation. But not for Taib at all.

The message can be said of one to Umno to please stay out of Sarawak. You don’t know how Sarawak works..

Now the opposition can be more effective in the State Assembly and will be a good improvement. It is good for the people to have a louder check-and-balance voice.

The people has spoken. Make their lives better or else the next election will see further erosion of BN seats.

Sarawak Election – The Last Hours

There are only hours till polling. It is Friday night right before the Sarawak Election Day – 16 April.

Expect all punches pulled. The federal government came to campaign. So did Tun M today. The Sarawak polls has turned into a federal matter.

Predictions from all over but which ones are accurate. Time will tell.

Some say the shocking outcome tomorrow may see SUPP mauled and go the way of Gerakan. SNAP will win nothing. Masing and even Abang Johari and George Chan may lose and the fight will be immense. On the ground sentiments may indicate a loss already.

Another assessment puts even Taib losing. Unbelievable. As an old hand in such elections, it is quite impossible to “lose” the seat at all. Taib knows exactly what to do to save his seat for sure. As for the rest, that may not be quite the same and will depend on how much vote swing they can fight but beyond which is game over.

Both BN and Pakatan are putting their best foot forward and BN will do their utmost to fend off the unexpected most formidable challenge by the entire opposition front.

What is clear is that the tide has turned in many areas towards the opposition. Some say at least 19 seats but another 20+ is too close to call. The opposition has managed to mount their campaign that touched many Sarawakians and changed at least the ceramah culture by turning out by tens of thousands in some reports.

Certainly, BN has been bedazzled by the opposition led by Anwar. All the attempts to smear him have not stopped his popularity but have given him more public support. The way the opposition handled the many sensitive issues made them looked personable. BN didn’t come across as understanding the ordinary Sarawakian and the opposition wins hands down.

Crowds don’t necessarily correlate with votes but is definitely encouraging. BN’s crowds came for the food and goodies and then leave for the opposition ceramahs. That certainly must be disappointing but yet doesn’t mean a loss of votes.

This time round, Sarawakians are treated with the election campaigns of their lives. The Christian community which makes up almost half the voters were not spared when Najib and Pakatan both tried to reach out to them. Net result, BN made no headway.

Tomorrow morning will herald a new dawn for Sarawak regardless how the results turn out. It’s already a historic campaign.

And then to see how much of all predictions will match the voters final collective decisions.

Sarawak! The stage is yours! Vote wisely your constitutional right and your loudest voice yet! The rest of Malaysia and the world are watching you.

Sarawak: Win-Win is Possible

Sarawakians will decide on April 16. This election appears to be heading towards a landmark in not only state history but a national history.

1. Taib will win but lose enough to have a strong opposition

Although there are serious rumblings and disenchantments across many constituencies, it is unlikely that Taib can be defeated at all. The culture of state dependence is just too strong. The government machinery with Najib in the picture will dampen the opposition’s momentum for sure.

However, it is also accepted that BN will lose substantial number of seats, between 20 to 25 seats in all probability to deny BN 2/3 majority (24 seats needed). Between PBB and SUPP, they can easily lose 20 over seats with SUPP losing the most.

[On a side note, it is highly improbable that the opposition will take over from BN. As such, it will remain an impossible dream for them but the results may just be enough to lead a federal electoral change. Baru Bian will not be the next CM but possibly the Opposition Leader at the State Assembly.]

This will definitely serve a loud wake up call without Taib losing out and delivers on his promise to win Sarawak for Najib. A major reshuffle of leaders and strategies will take place and Sarawakians will win ultimately.

In this state of power shift, Taib wins, opposition wins and the people wins.

2. Najib’s worst fears begins

Sarawak will NOT fall to the opposition. It cannot, not at this time, if ever. Taib will continue to rule but most definitely not for very long though.

Enough seats will go to the opposition to legitimize the growing disenchanted voices of Sarawakians and to keep the ruling government on their toes.

This will mirror the federal parliament where the opposition denied the BN their historical 2/3 majority.

However, this time around, Najib will really be having a nightmare to call for GE13 soon.

Najib has already broken history by calling off this Wednesday Cabinet meeting and have flown to Sarawak with his Ministers to campaign for BN. This signifies a desperate Najib not confident that Taib can sweep the seats again although Taib can win it for BN.

However, Sarawakians are smart people and proud of their statehood. They don’t like to be walked all over and told what to do. Taib and team are certainly not going to appreciate this intrusion by Najib. It will most likely fuel some level of retaliation at the votes swing from BN to the opposition instead of helping. This lesson was not learnt in the Sibu by-election at all.

In yesterday’s news, Najib had lost out to the opposition support at the ceramahs held in Kuching. Najib’s 1,000 vs Anwar’s 8,000. The Peninsula’s campaign style has taken hold in Sarawak for sure. However, this is no indication of the voting pattern at all. An emotional victory for the time being for the opposition and red faces for BN.

Najib will sweat if Sarawak loses its 2/3 majority and his worst nightmare will begin about his decision on GE13.

3. Time will tell – April 16

Will there be a Sarawak BN revolt on Najib’s usurping Taib’s leadership in the campaign? Will Taib let this go without a whimper and swallow this intrusion and eat humble pie?

If Taib is the fearless leader that he is and all the powers that be supporting him, there will be evidently clear signals at what can be called a “controlled loss”. Sarawak BN will win the state and lose 2/3 majority. Taib will deliver on his promise and also signal to Najib that he is not welcomed in Sarawak by losing enough seats in retaliation.

Bouyed by an opposition gaining momentum, this can be easily achieved by Taib. A loss that is yet considered a win for Taib and Sarawak and giving room to the opposition.

4. Sarawak has a National impact

Do not for a minute think this is merely a state election. By Najib making his historic entrance intruding into Sarawak elections will tell you that this has a serious national impact.

Never in the history of Sarawak election have we seen the PM taking over the campaign trails. Najib is the first and probably not the last Peninsula leader to do so into the future. He has set the precedence.

From the Sibu “You give me, I give you” “buy election” to this very major state elections, Najib is not letting any results to chance if he can help it.

Time will tell and soon it will be. Come Saturday, history will be made. Sarawak will write national history as they cast their votes.

April 16: Tsunami or Fizzle?

The Sarawak State Election polling date is April 16. Will this be a watershed of elections as many predict or will BN and Taib prevail over everything thrown at them.

The Opposition appears to believe that this election can become the turning point for a national level change.

In practical terms, BN and Taib also know that Sarawak will present a turning point of sorts to the ruling government or the opposition.

This will be a very hard fought elections although BN is poised to win majority of the seats. Most pundits believe that BN cannot lose Sarawak but may lose a substantial number of seats.

This turning point will augur well for the opposition if they manage to deny Taib’s 2/3 majority or even the near impossible of defeating BN.

This turning point will also augur well for BN if they don’t lose as many seats to the opposition and will encourage Najib to be bold enough to call for a Federal election.

Of course, there is so much said on both sides especially in the MSM as well as alternate media. But the Sarawakians have the final say come April 16 no matter come what may.

No government is perfect. Not BN and certainly not Taib. This article is not about sides but a centrist view of what is transpiring and brewing in Sarawak.

Certainly, there are numerous issues being thrashed around. This election will go down in history as the hardest fought yet to date and perhaps the dirtiest.

A lot is at stake here for all parties. An don’t underestimate the stakes as it is more than Sarawak as most leaders know all too well.

This is not just about Sarawak. What happens here will have broad ramifications and Najib has already alluded to it when he commented he will assess Sarawak election results before deciding on the GE13.

If BN and Taib make significant losses in terms of number of seats, it can start a tsunami if GE13 is called.

If BN and Taib wins comfortably albeit losing some seats not significant enough to cause a major dent as the opposition fizzles out, Najib will feel more confident to move forward with GE13.

Politics is dirty. All “legal” tactics will be used this time and appears to be no holds barred. Observers already have lots to comment and EC has barred MAFREL as observer status. But that’s how politics go. It’s personal to a large extent and the future of many leaders are also at stake and won’t lose without a fight.

The mood in Sarawak is all hyped up with this mother of all Sarawak elections. Can Taib retain his control and charm or will family members come to spoil the party? The coffee shops are starting to brew with all sorts of speculations.

And speculations they remain. No matter who says what, it is what the electorate believes that will influence their votes, regardless if that belief is true or false. Electoral votes have generally been emotional and this time is no different.

Certainly, the campaigns are out to charm the fence seaters as the diehards on both sides will be unlikely to change their minds no matter what.

This time, there are the most number of Independent candidates and it is predicted that they will all lose. Let’s see if that be true.

So, all Malaysians, please sit up and pay close attention to what is happening in Sarawak because it will affect everyone of us most assuredly, whether we want or not.

This Sarawak election can see either the beginnings of a GE13 tsunami or a stronger BN emerging to shut out the opposition.