Umno in turmoil?

A series of unbelievable events have turned the table on an otherwise steady BN, particularly Umno.  Starting with the Hindraf movement (outlawed in 2008 ) then followed by Bersih in late 2007, they were generally accepted as a precursor to a tide turning 12th General Election in 8 March 2008.  The BN conceded defeat in 5 states (Kelantan, Kedah, Penang, Perak and Selangor) and KL Federal Territory, the richest and most developed states in Malaysia.

The MIC and Gerakan were virtually wiped out with their top leaders losing their seats.  The MCA did a little better but were left wondering what happened when they lost so badly in that election.  Umno was left hanging in the balance but Sarawak BN came to the rescue and delivered all the seats but one.  BN lost its 2/3 number of seats in the Parliament.

Shortly thereafter came the expected loss in Pematang Pauh by-elections to Anwar.  The next by-elections last month in Kuala Terengganu was an unexpected loss that dealt a major blow to BN and Umno when they lost even after throwing in a phenomenal amount of Federal monies as well as conceding the control of oil royalties back to the state.  The result of that by-election was very unexpected to Umno especially they were controlling the seat for two terms.

While the dust in KT was settling,

The Day After

As the dust settles, there’s a lot of soul searching and possibly blaming that is going on amongst the BN and Umno leadership.  At the same time, PAS and other Pakatan Rakyat parties are on a celebratory mood going into a summit.  Not forgetting the bloggers and other non-political personalities.

We shall be reading a lot of commentaries from various political analysts both at home and abroad and we can be sure they are all in general consensus of why this has happened.

It doesn’t take an expert to tell what really happened.  The signal was clear from last year’s General Election as well as the Pematang Pauh by-election.  But what did the ruling front do about this?  Blame Pak Lah and force him out of office.  Now with this loss, who else is to be blamed.  Tun M still insists the blame to be on Pak Lah.

Sarawak is Pivotal to BN and PR

Ever since Anwar won the Pematang Pauh by-elections, Pak Lah has kept Taib close to him.  Pak Lah knows Sarawak is the last bastion for the BN that cannot shake lest it sounds the death knoll for 50 over years of rule.

It was rumored that Pak Lah flew from Penang to JB to meet with Taib on the early evening of the Pematang Pauh election day when Pak Lah knew that the constituency was a lost cause.

For a while, Anwar had tried to quietly woo Taib and other component parties in Sarawak but to no particular success.  Taib knows his position and understands the peculiar position Sarawak plays in the possible fall of BN and the possible rise of PR.  It’s Sarawak that will tip the scales either way.

Even now, Sarawak, not Sabah, remains the crucial tipping point

Can’t Ignore Economic Challenges – Is there a Bipartisan hope?

Although the Rakyat in Malaysia has been feeling the strain from the inflationary pressures largely impacted by the global financial challenges as well as the unnecessary large fuel price hike in June, our cost of living has skyrocketed and our standard of living has plummeted.

We feel the pinch (correction: punch) of the economic contraction on the street first and this is certain in everybody’s daily lives.  Everything edible or inedible has gone up except salaries.  Even of late, housing loan repayments have gone up too.  Our propensity to spend has diminished.  That also means the propensity to save has diminished too.  And this time round, it is significant.

However the Government tries to persuade the Rakyat the opposite will not work because the stark reality has set in to all walks of life.  Inflation is nothing racial or religious or political.  What we face in economic and financial challenges has no color or creed.  But how we are equipped to face up to it should not either and our economic policies and execution should be for all Malaysians.

The Economist Intelligence Unit has published another wake up call.  Carried by TheMalaysianInsider (read here), this report pointedly tells us Malaysians that what we are told by the Government is just not true.  Here is a summary:

Wake Up Call – Mathias Chang

In an excellent recent article by Mathias Chang entitled “Flip-Flopping Fairy Tales – Malaysia Will Not Have 3.9% Growth In 2009 – Accepting Reality Is Not Pessimism, Giving False Hopes Is Not Optimism” , he challenges the nation’s leadership’s position of ostrich economics.

Surely, his grave warnings may sound like doomsday prophecy and may be brushed aside as wild speculation.  Surely, the Badawi Administration can come out and say quite the opposite that all will be well and Zeti says we will not be in a recession next year.  Yes, people in the right places can come out saying almost anything about the well-being of our economy.

But guess what?  Only we the Rakyat will know and has known for a while now that tough times have arrived and tougher times ahead.  It’s not about talking ourselves into a recession but to face the realities and do the right things.

Here are some of Mathias Chang‘s predictions (read here):

1. by H1 of 2009, the KLCI will drop below

Najib’s Rise Amidst Allegations Uncleared

Najib is now the only nomination for the Umno President post and come next March at the Umno AGM, Najib will be officially named the next Umno President to succeed Pak Lah.  It appears that the passage for Najib is safe, for now.

Can there be anything that can throw off his equilibrium, detract him from his path to glory, obstruct his ambition to become the next Prime Minister of Malaysia?  With the historical “wasted” Altantuya case being the longest in Malaysian history, Razak Baginda was aquitted and nobody was found guilty.  150 days of trial down the drain and paid for by tax payers money.  Will the allegations return to haunt Najib?

Obama and Pak Lah – What a difference

November 5 saw Barack Obama voted as the next President of USA.  His acceptance speech continues to demonstrate his charimastic and inspiring skills to stir the masses.  He has since separated himself from other leaders previous to this by his consistent message of change and appeals to most of America as shown by the votes he garnered.  He further brings the vanquished opponents to work together for the changes needed in US.  He is both reconciliatory as well as setting the stage very well to move forward as a world leader, as the next President of USA.

November 7 sees Pak Lah making his announcement regarding the Cabinet approving the formulation of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (SPRM) Bill 2008 in a move to further strengthen the national integrity agenda.  This is something he failed to do in his past 5 years as the PM.  Now, he is rushing for time to make good his promises of reform of the judiciary and the police.

Can we see a difference between Obama and Pak Lah?

Malaysia Most Risky in Weathering Financial Crisis

UPDATED: Anil Netto wrote an excellent article entitled “Malaysia’s Ostrich Economics” much along the same lines of this posting (read here).  It was originally posted at Asia Times Online.

The Straits Times (Singapore) reported today (read here):

On a scale of zero for the least risky to 10 for the most, Singapore scored 2.76, followed by Australia (2.9) and Hong Kong (3.23). Most risky are India (6.87), Thailand (6.28) and Malaysia (6.07). They are vulnerable not so much to the financial fallout but due to internal developments, the report added.

Regardless of what Najib wants us to believe, come November 4 in Parliament, he will have to be candid and honest about the state of affairs in Malaysia.  If he is wanting to be the next PM, he has to be seen to know what he is talking about and do something affirmative and not skirt around the issue or remain in a state of denial.

Economic Problems Felt, Umno Politics Takes Front Seat

Today‘s NST front page:

KL Composite Index loses 3.6% to 859.11 … analysts say the markets haven’t seen the worst yet … the Malaysian market is not an exception.  The shares are oversold.  They no longer reflect their values.  We now have plenty of cheap, quality and undervalued stocks … but expect it to fall further next week,” a local dealer said.

This 32.2 points down is the KLCI lowest in 4 years.  We don’t want to be duped and lulled into a dream that Malaysia is not in a problem state.  At the same time, we should not be doomsday prophets either.  We just need to be honest and do something about the economy NOW!

But is the Government SEEN to be doing much?  We’ve been hearing a lot about not to worry but economics is not requiring counselling.  The Malaysian economy requires definite strategies and actions.  But is there any?

Can Pak Lah Be PM and not Umno President?

Cheeky thought indeed.  A fellow blogger had posted a similar thought here.  After all, we had assumed that when Pak Lah announced he wasn’t defending his Umno Presidency.  We assumed the next Umno President will traditionally be the BN Chairman and then the PM of Malaysia.  And that person perhaps may be Najib himself.

What Pak Lah clearly said was that he wasn’t defending his post in Umno but he didn’t say he was stepping down as the PM.  Is what he didn’t say important?  We should not assume too much